The New Jersey Devils have been connected to Dylan Larkin, who reportedly asked for a trade from the Detroit Red Wings. While the Devils have had a long road of disappointment since their run to the 2012 Stanley Cup Final, the Red Wings have actually been in fewer playoff games since Larkin debuted in 2015.
Larkin has played in five playoff games. That happened in his rookie season. That team had Henrik Zetterberg, Pavel Datsyuk, Mike Green, and Brad Richards. We haven’t heard from many of them for years, and most of them are just trivia answers at this point. That was the last time Larkin had been in the playoffs.
So, he wants to go somewhere else. This was undoubtedly a hard decision for Larkin, who grew up in Michigan. The Devils are an intriguing destination for him, where he can join Jack and Luke Hughes in their pursuit of contention. But what would it cost? It won’t cost Nico Hischier, but it will cost a ton.
This is one we call the “volume” approach. Cody Glass is two years younger than Larkin but not nearly as good. However, he gives the Red Wings a center for next season, and he is eligible for an extension now. He scored 19 goals this past season, and he’s a former top-10 pick in the draft. Glass is a decent piece in a return for the NHL right now.
Of course, the biggest piece in the trade is the Devils’ first-round pick. The pick is currently slated at 12th overall, which would give the Red Wings the first-round pick they no longer have after trading for Justin Faulk this season. The trade was bad at the time, but many thought Detroit was making the playoffs. They fell on their face and missed the postseason, and that’s how we got here. They need a first-round pick in the deal to move forward without moving too far back.
Lenni Hameenaho gives the Red Wings another young NHLer, this one with a pretty high ceiling for a winger. Many Devils fans will hate the idea of losing Hameenaho, but he did hit a wall last year, and there’s more he could give. We’re not worried about him, but we’re also not devastated in losing him. Conrad Fondrk was a 2025 second-round pick who might be ready for a bounce back, but he wasn’t good in his first season at Boston University. This trade might be missing a star piece, but you’re giving the Red Wings a lot of darts here.
Meanwhile, the Devils give a massive package for Larkin and Gibson. Simon Nemec is a former second-overall pick and a player who’s growing in the NHL. He’s incredibly clutch and has offensive chops to make something out of nothing. His hockey IQ needs work, but if he learns to have better instincts, he has superstar upside.
Dawson Mercer has been a consistent 20-goal scorer throughout his career. He plays every game. He’s a player that teams will really like, and he’s a 2020 draft pick, so he has plenty of career ahead of him. The Devils add a second-round pick since the Red Wings have to hold onto that second year of Markstrom, but they might be willing to see if Markstrom’s issues were a one-season blip on the radar.
We landed on this deal, and we think it’s fair value. Dawson Mercer is a worse version of Dylan Larkin, but he’s a decent replacement to keep them moving forward. Mercer isn’t Larkin, but he’s younger, cheaper, and he can grow in the right situation. There’s been a limit for Mercer for some reason, but under the right circumstances, he should be even better.
The Devils add that first-round pick the Red Wings undoubtedly want in this deal. At 12th overall, the Red Wings might get someone like Oscar Hemming or Tynan Lawrence, who could grow into great players.
And then on top of those two pieces, the Devils give the Red Wings Seamus Casey. He’s an NHL-ready right-handed defenseman who can bring serious offensive abilities to the lineup. Adding Casey gives the Red Wings a chance to try and get something back for Faulk, who didn’t really fit into this lineup.
At the end of this situation, it seems pretty clear that the Red Wings fans aren’t going to be happy with the return. This happens every time. When a star player is clearly out the door, the return is underwhelming. It happened with the Devils and Taylor Hall. It happened with the Sharks and Timo Meier. However, this at least gives Red Wings’ fans something to build off of.
